Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
