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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys taken in the fall, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, if the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable comeback win, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, few had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd