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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a simple script. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the skipper who oversaw the biggest turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or merely the most shocking upset.

But the current race is distinctly different. The list of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with recent division winners declining and recent also-rans improving in unison. In an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and fun year, he's competing with five other elite candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's sustained performance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the clear-cut choice. Yet this is not a typical year!

Where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However Johnson falls short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the leadership stuff, which wasn't a given after his early public appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of new ideas and experience, he bet on first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting reliable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still